Monday, March 10, 2008

Pacquiao/Marquez prediction

It's been a good start to the year for boxing. The Kelly Pavlik/Jermain Taylor rematch was competitive 166 pounds, Israel Vasquez outpointed Rafael Marquez in a very good fight at 122, the third between the two and Nate Campbell outpointed Juan Diaz on March 8 to win a portion of the lightweight title.

And this Saturday, March 15 Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez meet for the second time in a rematch of their 2004 fight, which ended in a draw. In the 2004 fight, Marquez was down three times in the first fight, but rallied to earn the draw.

Marquez/Pacquiao II will be fought at 130 pounds.

"Manny is focused," said Pacquiao trainer Freddie Roach. "He's ready to go. We'll see the best of Pacquiao. He's trained well. Juan is a good fighter. If Juan fights aggressive, we have a plan, if he counters we have a plan for that too."

Many expect Saturday's fight to be as thrilling as the first. Both fighters have won big fights since their last encounter. The only disappointment is that the rematch didn't happen sooner.

But both fighters have improved since the last fight. Pacquiao is one of the game's biggest punchers, Marquez is solid in most parts of his arsenal.

"In the last fight, I made the right adjustments to get back into the fight," Marquez said. "Since them, Manny has improved. He's done a lot of good things. But I'm ready to fight, I'll be right there and it'll be a good fight. I'm a better, technical fighter. I have more speed, I'm stronger than I was four years ago. Manny got tired in that last fight. I've prepared as well as I can, I have everything to beat Manny."

Pacquiao can be very explosive as we've seen in fights with Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera and in the first fight with Marquez.

Marquez is a shrewd boxer, who in my opinion has been one of the sport's most unsung fighters and worst promoted until recently.

Pacquiao is certainly in his prime in his career. He's gotten smarter as a fighter, more relaxed and he understands what it means to be a champion.

Marquez is steady, he doesn't get overwhelmed by the moment and he understands how to beat Pacquiao.

Marquez has to be careful when to exchange with Pacquiao, he has to counter Pacquiao wisely and he must be busy with his punches.

Meanwhile, Pacquiao has to be patient against Marquez and not try to fight the Mexican veteran's fight.

Saturday's fight is going to be very intriguing. Can Pacquiao hurt Marquez again? Can Marquez continue the momentum and figure Pacquiao out again? Is it a case of Marquez simply having the right stuff to beat Pacquiao? Was Pacquiao in tip top shape in the first fight?

It's a must fight this Saturday. You have two great champions who have beaten some of the sport's best. And there was so much intrigue in the first fight, can this one be better?

I love Marquez and his style, but I like Pacquiao to win this fight. Pacquiao is stronger, he's faster and he's matured and taken this fight very seriously. I believe both figthers will have their moments early on, but I see Pacquiao taking over midway and winning by late-round stoppage.

- Felix

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