Saturday's Kentucky Derby

Intrigue indeed.
This year's version of the Kentucky Derby is filled with its usual load of top horses, optimistic owners and top notch jockeys and trainers.

The favorite is Big Brown and for good reason. He's fast, talented and was very impressive in last start, winning the Florida Derby. Trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. believes 100 percent that this is the horse to beat Saturday afternoon. Big Brown is perfect in three starts, but inexperience could hurt. Last year, Curlin was in the same boat and ran well, but couldn't hold up. Big Brown will be in the hunt, make no doubt about it. But if the speed factor is too great, he might burn up. Keep that in mind. Plus the No. 20 post spot isn't the most desirable.

Actually, I like some of the value that bettors could get with some horses. Gayego is 15-1 in the morning-line and was last seen winning the Arkansas Derby with New Mexico native and rider Mike Smith aboard. Gayego has a very good stalking style and made a good transition from the synthetic surface to the regular surface. But, like Big Brown he has an outside post, No. 19, that could do more damage than good.

Pyro is a horse that cannot be dismissed and the 6-1 morning-line odds is indicative of that. Pyro ran a very dull race in the Blue Grass, but trainer Steve Asmussen is one of the nation's best. However, Pyro ran superbly early in carer and might have peaked early. But if you don't bet to win keep in mind for exotics. Asmussen will also saddle Z Fortune in the race.

But the horse I like the best is Colonel John, who is 4-1 in the morning line and seems to be the horse that many believe could best Big Brown. Colonel John has never finished worse than second in six lifetime starts for trainer Eoin Harty and is coming off a dazzling workout of 57.61 seconds on Sunday. Should get better with longer distances. Also gets a solid post in the No. 10 hole.

Also, keep an eye on the likes of Court Vision and Cowboy Cal. Cowboy Cal was second in the Blue Grass and trainer Todd Pletcher is one of the nation's best. Court Vision has hit the board in all six starts and former Sunland Park and New Mexico jockey Garrett Gomez, one of the nation's best, is aboard.

An interesting note is that Eight Belles will try and become just the fourth filly to win the Derby. I have seen her run several times and she is talented and always getting better. Might be worth a small wager.

The final tally, Colonel John in first, Big Brown up for second and the filly Eight Belles sneaks in for third.

Felix